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Application of a Bivariate Poisson Model in Devising a Profitable Betting Strategy of the Zimbabwe Premier Soccer League Match Results

Received: 10 March 2015     Accepted: 27 March 2015     Published: 7 April 2015
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Abstract

The study seeks to construct a profitable betting strategy for soccer results by developing a bivariate Poisson model for the analysis and computation of probabilities for football match outcomes. The dependence coefficient is estimated from Monte Carlo simulation and the scoring intensities are estimated from a log-linear model. The hypothesis tests show that the home-ground effect exists for some, but not all teams in the Zimbabwe Premier Soccer League. The profitable betting rule is to place a bet on the outcome of a particular match when a model's probabilistic forecast suggests a sufficient edge over the bookmaker's implied probability.

Published in American Journal of Theoretical and Applied Statistics (Volume 4, Issue 3)
DOI 10.11648/j.ajtas.20150403.15
Page(s) 99-111
Creative Commons

This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.

Copyright

Copyright © The Author(s), 2015. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

Betting Strategy, Soccer, Home-Ground Advantage, Scoring Intensities, Fixed-Odds

References
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[2] Bulla, J., Chesneau, C., Kachour, M. (2012). On the bivariate Skellam distribution. Journal of Multivariate Analysis.
[3] Cengiz, M. A., Murat, N., Koc, H., Senel, T. (2012). A Bayesian Computation for the Prediction of Football Match Results Using Artificial Neural Network. International Journal of Scientific Knowledge (Computing and Information Technology) Volume 1 Issue 2. [Online] Available from: www.ijsk.org. [Accessed on18/08/13]
[4] Crowder, M., Dixon, M., Ledford, A. and Robinson, M. (2002). Dynamic modeling and prediction of English Football League matches for betting. The Statistician51, 157-168.
[5] Dixon, M. J. and Coles, S. C. (1997). Modelling association football scores and inefficiencies in the football betting market. Applied Statistics 46, 265-280.
[6] Goddard, J. and Asimakopoulos, I. (2004). Forecasting football results and the efficiency of fixed-odds betting. J. Forecasting 23, 51-66.
[7] Karlis, D. and Ntzoufras, I. (2003). Analysis of sports data using bivariate Poisson models. The Statistician 52, 381-393.
[8] Karlis, D. and Ntzoufras, I. (2009). Bayesian modelling of football outcomes: using the Skellam's distribution for goal difference, IMA J. Numerical Analysis 20, 133-145.
[9] Koopman, S. J. and Lit, R. (2012). A Dynamic Bivariate Poisson Model for Analysing and Forecasting Match Results in the English Premier League. Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper.
[10] Lotteries and Gaming Act [Chapter 10:26]. 2000. 109-118.
[11] Oberhofer, h., Philippovich, T. and Winner, H. (2009). Distance matters in awaygames: Evidence from the German Football League. University of Salzburg. Workingpaper No. 2009 - 01.
[12] O`Shaughnessy, D. (2012). Optimal exchange betting strategy for win-draw-loss markets. Ranking Software, Melbourne.
[13] Pollard, R. (2006). Home advantage in soccer: variations in its magnitude and a literature review of the inter-related factors associated with its existence. J. Sport Behavior 29, 169-189.
[14] Rue, H. and Salvesen, O. (2000). Prediction and retrospective analysis of soccer matches in a league, J. Royal Statistical Society D 49, 399-418.
[15] Saavedra, G. M., Gutierrez, A. O., Fernandez, R.J.J. and Marques, P. (2012). Measuring home advantage in Spanish football. Sport training. Council of Europe classification: 17. Metrology of Sport.
[16] Vlastakis, N., G. Dotsis, and R. N. Markellos (2007). How Efficient is the European Football Betting Market? Evidence from Arbitrage and Trading Strategies. Journal of Forecasting.
[17] ZIFA(2013). www.zifa.co.zw
Cite This Article
  • APA Style

    Desmond Mwembe, Lizwe Sibanda, Ndava Constantine Mupondo. (2015). Application of a Bivariate Poisson Model in Devising a Profitable Betting Strategy of the Zimbabwe Premier Soccer League Match Results. American Journal of Theoretical and Applied Statistics, 4(3), 99-111. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajtas.20150403.15

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    ACS Style

    Desmond Mwembe; Lizwe Sibanda; Ndava Constantine Mupondo. Application of a Bivariate Poisson Model in Devising a Profitable Betting Strategy of the Zimbabwe Premier Soccer League Match Results. Am. J. Theor. Appl. Stat. 2015, 4(3), 99-111. doi: 10.11648/j.ajtas.20150403.15

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    AMA Style

    Desmond Mwembe, Lizwe Sibanda, Ndava Constantine Mupondo. Application of a Bivariate Poisson Model in Devising a Profitable Betting Strategy of the Zimbabwe Premier Soccer League Match Results. Am J Theor Appl Stat. 2015;4(3):99-111. doi: 10.11648/j.ajtas.20150403.15

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  • @article{10.11648/j.ajtas.20150403.15,
      author = {Desmond Mwembe and Lizwe Sibanda and Ndava Constantine Mupondo},
      title = {Application of a Bivariate Poisson Model in Devising a Profitable Betting Strategy of the Zimbabwe Premier Soccer League Match Results},
      journal = {American Journal of Theoretical and Applied Statistics},
      volume = {4},
      number = {3},
      pages = {99-111},
      doi = {10.11648/j.ajtas.20150403.15},
      url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajtas.20150403.15},
      eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ajtas.20150403.15},
      abstract = {The study seeks to construct a profitable betting strategy for soccer results by developing a bivariate Poisson model for the analysis and computation of probabilities for football match outcomes. The dependence coefficient is estimated from Monte Carlo simulation and the scoring intensities are estimated from a log-linear model. The hypothesis tests show that the home-ground effect exists for some, but not all teams in the Zimbabwe Premier Soccer League. The profitable betting rule is to place a bet on the outcome of a particular match when a model's probabilistic forecast suggests a sufficient edge over the bookmaker's implied probability.},
     year = {2015}
    }
    

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    AB  - The study seeks to construct a profitable betting strategy for soccer results by developing a bivariate Poisson model for the analysis and computation of probabilities for football match outcomes. The dependence coefficient is estimated from Monte Carlo simulation and the scoring intensities are estimated from a log-linear model. The hypothesis tests show that the home-ground effect exists for some, but not all teams in the Zimbabwe Premier Soccer League. The profitable betting rule is to place a bet on the outcome of a particular match when a model's probabilistic forecast suggests a sufficient edge over the bookmaker's implied probability.
    VL  - 4
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Author Information
  • National University of Science and Technology, Department of Statistics and Operations Research, Ascot, Bulawayo, Zimbabwe

  • National University of Science and Technology, Department of Statistics and Operations Research, Ascot, Bulawayo, Zimbabwe

  • National University of Science and Technology, Department of Statistics and Operations Research, Ascot, Bulawayo, Zimbabwe

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