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Modelling and Forecasting the Balance of Trade in Ethiopia

Received: 16 August 2014     Accepted: 8 February 2015     Published: 20 March 2015
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Abstract

For a long period of time, Ethiopia has involved in foreign trade and experienced trade deficit several time in the past. This deficit can be largely explained by the unequal terms of trade between agricultural commodities (the country's major export) and capital goods (the country’s major import). The core objective of study was to model the balance of trade in Ethiopia and forecast its value through ARIMA model by using annual data from 1974/75 to 2009/10. The appropriate model was ARIMA (3, 1, 0) and the forecasted value of balance of trade is expected to raising time to time from 2010/11 up to 2015/16.

Published in American Journal of Theoretical and Applied Statistics (Volume 4, Issue 1-1)

This article belongs to the Special Issue Computational Statistics

DOI 10.11648/j.ajtas.s.2015040101.14
Page(s) 19-23
Creative Commons

This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.

Copyright

Copyright © The Author(s), 2015. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

Trade Balance, ARIMA

References
[1] Box, G.E.P. and G.M. Jenkins (1970). Times Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control. Holden-Day, San Francisco, CA.
[2] Challen, J. and Hagger, S. (1983). Economics; Mathematical models. St. Martin's Press, New York.
[3] Dickey, D. A. and W. A. Fuller (1979). Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root. Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 74, PP. 427–431.
[4] Enders, W. (1995). Applied Econometric Time Series. Giles and Mizra, New York.
[5] Greene, W.H (2003). Econometric Analysis, 5th edition. Pearson Education, Inc., Upper Saddle River, New Jersey.
[6] Maddala, G.S (1992). Introduction to Econometrics, 2nd edition. University of Florida and Ohio state university, Macmillan, New York.
[7] National Bank of Ethiopia (2007/08). Annual Report. Documentation and Publication Service, Addis Ababa.
[8] Negadras Gebrehiwot Baykedagn (1912). Emperor Minlik and Ethiopia. Ethiopia, Addis Ababa.
[9] Nelson, C. and Plosser, C. (1982). Trends and Random Walks in Macroeconomic Time Series: Some Evidence and Implications. Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 10, PP. 130-162.
Cite This Article
  • APA Style

    Yibeltal Arega Ashebir, Tewodros Getinet Yirtaw, Anteneh Asmare Godana. (2015). Modelling and Forecasting the Balance of Trade in Ethiopia. American Journal of Theoretical and Applied Statistics, 4(1-1), 19-23. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajtas.s.2015040101.14

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    ACS Style

    Yibeltal Arega Ashebir; Tewodros Getinet Yirtaw; Anteneh Asmare Godana. Modelling and Forecasting the Balance of Trade in Ethiopia. Am. J. Theor. Appl. Stat. 2015, 4(1-1), 19-23. doi: 10.11648/j.ajtas.s.2015040101.14

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    AMA Style

    Yibeltal Arega Ashebir, Tewodros Getinet Yirtaw, Anteneh Asmare Godana. Modelling and Forecasting the Balance of Trade in Ethiopia. Am J Theor Appl Stat. 2015;4(1-1):19-23. doi: 10.11648/j.ajtas.s.2015040101.14

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  • @article{10.11648/j.ajtas.s.2015040101.14,
      author = {Yibeltal Arega Ashebir and Tewodros Getinet Yirtaw and Anteneh Asmare Godana},
      title = {Modelling and Forecasting the Balance of Trade in Ethiopia},
      journal = {American Journal of Theoretical and Applied Statistics},
      volume = {4},
      number = {1-1},
      pages = {19-23},
      doi = {10.11648/j.ajtas.s.2015040101.14},
      url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajtas.s.2015040101.14},
      eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ajtas.s.2015040101.14},
      abstract = {For a long period of time, Ethiopia has involved in foreign trade and experienced trade deficit several time in the past. This deficit can be largely explained by the unequal terms of trade between agricultural commodities (the country's major export) and capital goods (the country’s major import). The core objective of study was to model the balance of trade in Ethiopia and forecast its value through ARIMA model by using annual data from 1974/75 to 2009/10. The appropriate model was ARIMA (3, 1, 0) and the forecasted value of balance of trade is expected to raising time to time from 2010/11 up to 2015/16.},
     year = {2015}
    }
    

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  • TY  - JOUR
    T1  - Modelling and Forecasting the Balance of Trade in Ethiopia
    AU  - Yibeltal Arega Ashebir
    AU  - Tewodros Getinet Yirtaw
    AU  - Anteneh Asmare Godana
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    DO  - 10.11648/j.ajtas.s.2015040101.14
    T2  - American Journal of Theoretical and Applied Statistics
    JF  - American Journal of Theoretical and Applied Statistics
    JO  - American Journal of Theoretical and Applied Statistics
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    UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajtas.s.2015040101.14
    AB  - For a long period of time, Ethiopia has involved in foreign trade and experienced trade deficit several time in the past. This deficit can be largely explained by the unequal terms of trade between agricultural commodities (the country's major export) and capital goods (the country’s major import). The core objective of study was to model the balance of trade in Ethiopia and forecast its value through ARIMA model by using annual data from 1974/75 to 2009/10. The appropriate model was ARIMA (3, 1, 0) and the forecasted value of balance of trade is expected to raising time to time from 2010/11 up to 2015/16.
    VL  - 4
    IS  - 1-1
    ER  - 

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Author Information
  • Department of Statistics, University of Gondar, Gondar, Ethiopia

  • Department of Statistics, University of Gondar, Gondar, Ethiopia

  • Department of Statistics, University of Gondar, Gondar, Ethiopia

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